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Rethinking
& Confident Humility

The Structure that Made My Work Better

Humans work best with good collaboration
Measurable goals are necessary to a productive workplace
I should be receptive to feedback
My leadership should be receptive to feedback
Pragmatism > Idealism, Function > Form

A big part of this talk is that I recommend having values for your professional life.
Here are a few of mine that relate to what I want to talk about
- and to let you know where I'm coming from.
Collaboration
Good collaboration doesn't always work out
But I believe it is way we work best
Goals
I've worked at quite a few places that did not have good measurable goals
I think this creates a lot of unnecessary friction,
disagreeing on even the direction to push or what success looks like
Feedback for me
To collaborate well, because I am not perfect,
and to have a better chance at success,
that means I need to be open to feedback.
Feedback for leadership
I believe the same for leadership, for the same reasons
Pragmatism
I'm a big fan on MVP
First I want to ensure it works for as many people as possible,
Then I'm going to make it as handsome as possible
How did I get to those values

This is your brain...

and mine too.

How We Learn
& Feedback Loops

Firebug Inspector circa 2007 — Picture from Jeff Atwood's Blog

We learn best with

quick &

unambiguous feedback.

For myself:

Stuck for more than 20 minutes?

I need to ask for help and/or take a break.

For myself:

Being a remote dev,
coworking helps me a lot.

For working with others:

Good documentation

Make it as easy
as possible to onboard

For working with others:

Pilot your work before hand off

Catch mistakes and it should be unambiguous

For working with others:

Build in feedback & error messages

Especially with shared code.

Cursed
Feedback Loops

Regression to the Mean

From: Daniel Kahneman. Thinking Fast and Slow "Regression to the Mean"

Regression to the Mean

Our performance can be thought of as a sin curve,
- We have an average performance, and fluxuations around that
- Michael Jordan's sin curve for three pointers is on a whole other level than mine, but we both have a sin curve.
When you perform well, it's most likely that your next performance is average,
- which may look like you've done poorer
When you perform poorly, it's most likely that your next performance is average,
- which will look like an improvement
So the flight instructor's experience is described accurately.
Daniel Kahneman is saying, is that his praise or beratement isn't what caused the performance to change.
- From long term research and science, we know that positive reinforcement is much more effective than negative reinforcement
A quick note, this isn't to say negative reinforcement doesn't happen, but that it should be avoided.
- In dire circumstances, I have yelled at my dog

Intuition, Bias, and Confidence

System 1

Automatic & constantly running
Gives almost instantaneous responses
Responsible for intuition, our "gut"
Little or no voluntary control

System 2

Effortful and much slower than System 1
Only runs when needed
Responsible for conscious choice and concentration

System 1 absorbs:

Your areas expertise
The information your exposed to

Cognitive Errors

A bat and a ball
together cost $1.10
The bat costs
$1 more than the ball.
How much does the ball cost?

A bat and a ball
together cost $1.10
Intuitive Answer: 10^¢
Then the bat would be $1.10
the total would be $1.20

A bat and a ball
together cost $1.10
Correct Answer: 5^¢.
Then the bat would be $1.05
the total would be $1.10

Dunning Kruger & Overconfidence

Substituting Questions

When asked a difficult question, System 1 will subconsciously substitute easier questions instead of trying to figure out the hard one.
For example:
- If asked to donate to a non-profit for a good cause, the question you're probably answering is
  - how many stories of this problem can I think of
  - how strongly do I feel about it'
  - does someone/thing I care about threatened by this issue
- At work, I often run into this when estimating a task.
  - Earlier in my career, system 1 was causing a lot of mistakes in my estimate,
  - I wasn't answering the right questions.
  - Now I have better questions, and know I when it's important, I need to stop and think about my estimate
Which leads me into my next cognitive error, that has a good mouth feel

What you see is all there is

Daniel Kahneman discusses this a lot in 'Thinking Fast and Slow'
As he puts it, System 1 doesn't tend to consider if you are missing information
It uses the information we have as if it is the only information
and most of the time we are unaware this even happening
One area I've been burned, and a lot of us have, is picking technology solutions
- New tools often get the benefit of the doubt,
  - because their warts aren't as well known,
  - or their marketing is louder than their detractors
- I've had many React and decoupled rescue projects, where I'm unsure why that direction was recommended or chosen
- AI is looking like a very shiny golden hammer right now, it's certainly impressive,
  but I think there is a large disconnect between what it's good for and what's it's marketed for.

Mental Dexterity

Confident Humilty

It's a vibe

Encourage (or Find) a
Learning Culture

Learning Culture thrives on two qualities:

Psychological Safety
Accountability

Psychological Safety

Is about respect, kindness, & trust

If I mess up or report an issue, talking about it won't have a negative result.
I can question the direction or decisions of our leadership and I won't be punished.
I can have hard conversations when they're needed.

Psychological Safety

Is not:
- Being "nice" and agreeable
- Seeing mistakes as threats
- Keeping ideas to yourself
- Only touting your strengths
- Fear of teammates and supervisors

Accountability

Without it, there is no reason to bring up issues.

The goal should not be guilt, shame, or punishment; but us agains the problem.

Tying it up

Final advice

Give these two books a shot, they're approachable and I found them extremely helpful:

Think Again, by Adam Grant
Non-Violent Communication, by Marshall B. Rosenburg

If you want to get in the nerdy weeds, Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman is great

Thanks for your time.

Most of the material is from:

Thinking Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman
Think Again - Adam Grant

Medical Residents Study:

Total Novices Lack Confidence, but as their Confidence Grows it Outpaces Accuracy from: Carmen Sanchez & David Dunning 'Overconfidence Among Beginners: Is a Little Learning a Dangerous Thing' - Harvard Business Review,
via 'Think Again - Stranded at the Summit of Mount Stupid)

Rethinking & Confident Humility

This is your brain...

How We Learn & Feedback Loops

We learn best with quick & unambiguous feedback.

For myself:

For myself:

For myself:

For working with others:

For working with others:

For working with others:

For working with others:

Cursed Feedback Loops

Regression to the Mean

Regression to the Mean

Intuition, Bias, and Confidence

System 1

System 2

System 1 absorbs:

Cognitive Errors

Dunning Kruger & Overconfidence

Substituting Questions

What you see is all there is

Mental Dexterity

Confident Humilty

Encourage (or Find) aLearning Culture

Learning Culture thrives on two qualities:

Psychological Safety

Psychological Safety

Accountability

Tying it up

Final advice

Most of the material is from:

Medical Residents Study:

Rethinking
& Confident Humility

How We Learn
& Feedback Loops

We learn best with

quick &

unambiguous feedback.

Cursed
Feedback Loops

Encourage (or Find) a
Learning Culture